Risk Assessment for Hydropower Projects from Rock and/or Ice Avalanches in High Mountain Asia (REACH)

This project assessed the exposure of hydropower infrastructure in High Mountain Asia to cascading rock and ice avalanches (RIAs), which can travel long distances and cause severe damage to downstream installations and communities. By compiling a comprehensive dataset of 1,811 hydropower projects and conducting GIS-based hazard modeling, the team identified the most at-risk stations and developed an ArcGIS Story Map to support policymakers in mitigating these climate-related risks.

High Mountain Asia (HMA) has seen rapid expansion in hydropower development in recent decades, with investments totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. Despite this growth, hydropower projects (HPPs) in the region are exposed to cascading rock and ice avalanches (RIAs), which can generate long-runout debris flows capable of destroying infrastructure and threatening downstream communities, as seen in the Chamoli (India, 2021) and Sedongpu (Tibet, 2018) disasters. The project aimed to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment of RIAs to HPPs across HMA, providing evidence-based guidance for safer hydropower development and disaster mitigation.

Overview map of hydropower installations in High Mountain Asia.

Activities & Outcomes

  • Compiled a comprehensive, open-access geodatabase of existing and planned HPPs across HMA.
  • Applied GIS-based first-order methods to delineate slopes and areas prone to RIAs.
  • Conducted detailed hazard modeling and risk assessments in key hotspot regions.
  • Developed an ArcGIS Story Map to visualize datasets and modeling results for use by stakeholders, policymakers, and the public.
  • A geodatabase of 1,811 HPPs with detailed spatial and attribute information, including quantified potential RIA threats, will be made publicly available via Zenodo after publication (expected Q3 2026).

Contact

Yan Zhong, University of Geneva, yan.zhong@unige.ch

Supported by GEO Mountains under the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)’s Adaptation at Altitude Programme (Project Number: 7F-10208.02.01).